The coyote trap.

"There’s definitely something going on in the industry."

I’ve heard that line on several phone calls with peers and I’ve read it scores more on social sites. Folks, there’s nothing going on, it’s already done. The direction is set.

Call it whatever you will, I don’t care, but we’re on a new path and companies are doing more than ever to extract every ounce of value out of everyone in the payroll system. I talked to a long time friend and former colleague who went from team leader to division leader overnight. No title change. No additional compensation. Just do more.

Meanwhile there are glimpses—nay, hope—that a pocket might exist with an oasis of normalcy and opportunity. It’s hard not to be cynical that these are just sparks made by people looking for something, anything, to bring distinction to their upcoming annual review or LinkedIn profile.

The signs are everywhere. Your head might be spinning because the changes are happening at a rate never seen before on this scale. I’ve been through this albeit on a smaller scale at a startup of one thousand people that started shedding roles one hundred or more at a time. People who were seen as part of the foundation were suddenly gone. Roles that were considered vital to the future the month before didn’t matter any more. The promising future presented by the CEO at the company’s annual offsite last quarter now turned into a toxic joke.

What happened there and then is now happening everywhere today. At different velocities and maybe in different ways, but the solid ground we used to enjoy turned to hot lava. Companies learned from the mistakes of others during the pandemic—witnessing their destruction due to poor decisions, bad diligence, lack of fiduciary responsibility, and the black holes created by collapses in consumer spending. They are all working from the same playbook—cut everything and hang on. Add to this readiness the disruption from the promises of AI driven automation which helps to explain the hypersonic speed of change today.

The people who are still questioning what happened and, my favorite, why it happened, are going to get lapped by the folks who stop looking back—stop trying to hang on or retake what was. Rip off the duct tape, it's gone.

It’s scary as hell and very few people deserve this but we’re on a new timeline and trying to make sense of the past that you had zero control over won’t produce any significant gain. Unless you are independently wealthy, it’s time to move into survival mode. For everyone, not just the folks on the outside but those who are stuck on the inside like my friend.

I read an article about a software engineer who lost a $150K job—and two more after that—all within a year. According to the story he’s applied to 800 jobs without a hit. As a result, he's working service jobs and started living out of a trailer. That’s how he adapted. While I have empathy for this person’s situation it only goes so far, like up until his 300th application. If this post was written by AI it would have inserted that bullshit line about the definition of insanity here.

Eight. Hundred. Applications.

That’s not trying. That’s not moving forward. That’s not insanity—it’s stupidity. It’s staying stuck in the past. Let me repeat, there is nothing “definitely something going on” because it’s already done.

We don’t have to take the one-thousand-applications-trailer-living-and-service-job path. I get why it feels like the only option. When the machine throws you out, the instinct is to shrink your life, to survive. But that’s not the only way.

What if survival looked like ownership instead? What if the best response to getting laid off isn’t to get in the line to nowhere for the next thing, but to build your own thing? Do your own thing? The tools are there. The access is there. The demand is there.

We’ve got too many smart, experienced people standing at the edge of the workforce, assuming their only move is down or to keep trying what worked yesterday. From what I read many folks fear an AI fueled collapse, but I fear another powered by denial, retreat, and stubborn nostalgia. If enough of us take this route, we’re going to see a quiet, steady slide of educated, capable folks into poverty—and that’s not just a personal tragedy, it’s a societal one. And no amount of boycotting or avoiding AI is going to help.

I don’t want to see anyone who is smart enough to read this publication fall down the hole. The rules have changed. That means we get to make new ones. But only if we stop trying to reclaim the old world and start building what comes next.